THE A$1,000 EXPERIMENT
Long spot. Short perpetual.
Observe what remains after costs.
Total paper equity
$1,000.00+$0.00 (0.00%)Funding received
$0.0000Only settled paymentsTrading fees
$0.0000Slippage also included in fillsIf closed now
$1,000.00After estimated exit costsPERFORMANCE
THE HEDGE
No coin currently clears the funding-versus-cost entry test
LIVE MARKETS / USDT
ACTIVITY
| Time · Melbourne | Event | Detail | Amount · AUD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Sept, 23:43 | contribution | Virtual capital increased to A$1,000; allocated BTC A$400, ETH A$300, SOL A$300 | $500.0000 |
| 8 Sept, 23:34 | start | Simulation initialized with A$500; no real funds or exchange credentials | $500.0000 |
RESEARCH / SEPARATE FROM LIVE RESULTS
Six rules tested on 120 days, then the selected trading rule checked on 60 later days. It lost money. Reducing only excess exposure improved the later result, but that revision was made after inspecting the period.
A$1,000 hypothetical capital · 2026-07-10 to 2026-09-08 UTC · funding, fees, price-basis changes, and terminal closing costs included. Revised comparison is exploratory; it is not an untouched holdout.
| First 120 days / policy selection | Net · AUD | Hedge entries |
|---|---|---|
| Original 14-day / 50% buffer (settled-rate proxy) | $0.00 | 0 |
| Remove buffer only / 14 days | $0.00 | 0 |
| 7-day settled mean / 30-day payback | -$2.82 | 6 |
| 7-day settled mean / 60-day payback | -$6.83 | 14 |
| 7-day settled mean / 90-day payback | -$8.14 | 17 |
| Unconditional hedged carry benchmark | -$0.56 | 3 |
Bybit public hourly spot/perpetual/mark candles and settled funding. First 120 days: 2026-03-12 to 2026-07-10 UTC. Historical bid/ask and indicative funding were unavailable: assume 1 bp half-spread plus 2 bp slippage per fill; original rules use last settled funding as a proxy. Stress case increases slippage to 7 bp. Hourly risk checks miss intrahour events. No future rates enter decisions. All funding fluctuations, including negative payments, remain in the ledger.
READ THE FINE PRINT
A$1,000 virtual capital across BTC (A$400), ETH (A$300), and SOL (A$300). Each sleeve targets 45% spot, an equal-quantity short, 45% collateral, and 10% cash. The original A$500 ledger is preserved; the additional A$500 is a contribution, not profit. Runs a low-turnover hedged carry benchmark: open once when sizing and liquidity permit, retain equal spot/short quantities through funding fluctuations, and collect actual positive or negative funding. There is no funding entry hurdle or 50% cost buffer. This is a forward experiment, not a validated profit strategy.
Modelled fees: 0.10% spot and 0.055% perpetual per fill, plus 0.02% slippage and observed bid/ask spreads. Actual account fees may differ. Funding uses published settled rates and the settlement minute’s opening mark as a price proxy.
A$1 = US$0.7207, fixed from 2026-09-08 (Frankfurter). USDT is assumed equal to USD; FX changes and stablecoin depegs are not modelled. Trades are simulated simultaneous fills, without queue or latency modelling. Funding is reconciled after downtime; intragap margin events cannot be reconstructed.
Pauses new trades on stale data. When gross exposure exceeds a sleeve’s allocation, reduce both legs proportionally toward 90% of that allocation, respecting quantity steps. This avoids a full close and re-entry. Close if short collateral falls below 25% of short notional or the sleeve’s paper loss reaches 10% of its starting allocation. Brief negative funding does not trigger a sale. These sampled guards are not guaranteed loss caps. No real exchange access is configured.